BPIF Outlook survey details falling prospects

Printers are feeling increasingly negative about future business prospects and are becoming more frustrated with competitors pricing below cost, according to the BPIF's latest Printing Outlook Survey.

Though 30% of the 102 respondents to the survey said trading conditions had improved, 20% reported they had deteriorated (with the remainder saying they had not changed), and this +10 balance was the lowest in the past four quarters.

In addition, for only the second time in 20 years, there was a negative forecast for prospects in the second quarter of the year.

More printers also said below-cost pricing by competitors was their top business concern; 85%, up from 65% in the first quarter of 2011.

The next major concern was paper or board prices (nominated by 32%), followed by insufficient profit to encourage investment (24%).

Almost 70% of respondents to the online survey in April said they paid more for paper and board in the first quarter, and three-quarters expected further price rises in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, more than half said they were making a profit of up to 4% or none at all, compared with a third in this position three months earlier, while only 15% (down from 26%) made profits of 7.5% or more.

This was despite a greater proportion working to full capacity in the first quarter of 2011; 13%, up from 8% in the final quarter of 2010.

There was also a major shift in lead times; 57% reported lead times of up to three weeks, against 36% in Q4 of 2010, while only 1% (down from 20%) said lead times were seven months or more.

However, the companies surveyed in the first quarter may have differed from those in April, meaning more respondents may have worked in markets such as catalogues and packaging that demand longer lead times.

Andrew Brown, BPIF public affairs adviser, said there had been a "reasonably good start to the year" for UK print, with trade improving in Q1 for the fourth consecutive quarter, but there were "signs that the market is weakening".

"There is also a great deal of anxiety over rising costs and weakening profit levels," he added, "and the inability of many printers to raise output prices is a major concern as they continue to absorb further rises in input costs."