Right. This. Really. Is. It. Surely we have now definitely reached the tipping point in the UK web offset market. Sir John Madejski has thrown in the towel, after watching circa £100m go down the gurgler during his expensive web offset odyssey, the rationale for which has had me baffled from the outset. After yesterday's denouement, I'm also wondering if he's set some sort of record for the biggest personal investment write-off in British business history? Not paper money like when a company's shares crash, but actual money. I've been scratching my head for more than five years about why one individual would choose to pour so much of their own cash into such a venture. The only conclusion I've been able to come to that made any sort of sense involves David Holland receiving private tuition from Paul McKenna*. Now we have a new era and a 'big two' in the shape of Polestar and Walstead-owned Wyndeham. Between them they currently hold the vast majority of contracts for time-sensitive weeklies and major monthly magazines. What happens next? With apologies to those currently employed at Colchester, Chromoworks, Chantry and Petty, it is surely inconceivable that Polestar will keep all its old plants, and old presses, going. One could also imagine that ownership of BGP will provide the stepping stone to creating that web offset supershed next to the Sheffield gravure factory. An alternative view is that Polestar, not exactly renowned for its price leadership position, could go all out to aggressively quash its remaining big competitor. But that would result in the sort of monopoly position for certain print products that could be more regulatory trouble than it would be worth. Will web print prices go up? Of course they will. If they don't, what's the point of all this? By how much? I am reminded of something Patrick Martell said after selling St Ives' magazine division to Walstead last year. Asked by yours truly what the required increase in market prices would need to be to make it worth keeping, the answer was "30%". So there's a ballpark figure to think about. As for publishers, well, for more than a decade – 14 years really – they have benefited from a dysfunctional web offset market that has seen more than £1bn delivered from the pockets of investors onto the bottom lines of media businesses, including my own employer. That's not their doing, they've just gained from madness in the market. That market has just changed. *For the avoidance of doubt, I'm being ironic here.
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"Very insightful Stern.
My analysis?
Squeaky bum time!"
"But in April there was an article with the Headline "Landa boosts top team as it scales up to meet market demand", where they said they came out of last year’s Drupa with a burgeoning order..."
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