'La Rue-sistance' ?ghts off Norman conquest

There's never a dull moment in print. As the year creeps towards a close, I find myself fascinated by the continued saga of De La Rue, which is playing out like many a good three-part drama from the BBC's yuletide repertoire.

For those viewers who are just joining us, in part one, Trouble at t’ Mill, De La Rue unearthed mysterious ‘production irregularities’ in paper production at its Overton site. The company couldn’t say much about either the cause or the full impact of the problem, but what it did say scared the bejesus out of the stock market.

In part two, The Men Who Stare at (Scape) Goats, chief executive James Hussey, fell on his sword, while jittery shareholders continued to dump the firm’s stock as it emerged that the financial impact on this year’s results (nevermind future years’) would be £35m.

This week has seen the start of the third and (probably) final part, The French Connection, in which Oberthur, a Paris-based rival has capitalised on the dramatic fall in De La Rue’s marcap (down 47% from its year high) to launch a takeover bid. De La Rue, punch drunk from the summer’s events and still lacking a chief executive, has come out fighting and in effect declared the 905p per share offer a joke.

Setting aside any jingoistic sentiments (although do we really want to see one of the UK’s last remaining print PLCs end up in French hands?) De La Rue is absolutely right to rebuff Oberthur’s "opportunistic" bid.

Yes, the events of the past year have been a PR disaster for the firm, but the subsequent fall in the firm’s share price left it seriously undervalued, as evidenced by the fact that its stock has subsequently spiked more than 30% to within 7.5% of Oberthur’s bid.

The microcosm of De La Rue’s travails on the Stock Exchange is symptomatic of the irrational behaviour that has afflicted investors ever since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In a world where no firm is ‘too big to fail’, anything is possible, and that has led to greater short-termism and consequently to De La Rue’s bitter medicine.

Where it will all end is anyone’s guess, although I am backing the firm and its investors to resist the Norman invasion and get back on an even keel in 2011.

Simon Nias is news editor of PrintWeek