UK exits recession

The UK recession has officially ended after the latest GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Prior to Q4 2009, the UK economy contracted by a total of 6.1% over a record six consecutive quarters from April 2008, making this the longest and deepest recession on record.

However, even with the country now finally out of recession, there was little cheer for the government in today's announcement, with the economy limping back into growth at a much slower rate than the 0.4% that was widely predicted.

Nicholas Mockett, of Moorgate Capital, said: "If we have gone up 0.1%, it means we've stopped decaying. As Mervyn King says, it's about levels, not about percentages, and if we keep growing at 0.1% a quarter, we'll have an awful long time before we get back up to the level we were at previously.

"There is also the possibility that it could be a rounding error, however, I suspect it probably won't be. I think a lot of the steps that were taken will probably have helped stopped the decline, but 0.1% isn't much of a positive signal."

The return to growth follows last week's announcement that unemployment had fallen for the first time since May 2008. Despite the good news, it is likely that the return to pre-recession growth levels will be a long and painful process.

"There is definitely a risk of inflation, although I don't think we'll have to worry about that until the middle of this year" said Mockett. "The things that are going to drive that are the cost of raw materials rising as global demand picks up and the cost of UK imports rising until the pound strengthens."

Last month, the CBI predicted that the UK economy would not reach pre-recession levels until the end of 2011, with growth in 2010 limited to 1.2%.