The indicators are certainly ominous. In the US, revenue from e-books exceeds that generated by digital print in this market. In North America, digitally printed books account for much less than 10% of publishers’ revenue, while e-books are already pushing 20%. In March 2011 the Association of American Publishers reported that trade book print sales in the US fell $20m (£12.5) compared with last year, while e-book sales rose by $41m, with the net effect that overall sales were up by about 5%. Of course, the US market is different to the UK, but e-book numbers here, although low by comparison, are also beginning to rise.

Retail bookstores are struggling as consumers increasingly go online to purchase books. The only real growth large retail booksellers are reporting these days is in e-commerce. Without stores in which consumers can browse, there is nowhere for printed books to be displayed, – physically at least. So will printed books go the way of vinyl records, CDs and printed bills?

I think not. Bob Young, chief executive of Lulu.com, a leading self-publishing site which currently publishes about 20,000 new titles each month, told attendees at the recent Interquest forum on digital book printing in New York that he believes printed books will always play an important role because humans crave the immediacy and longevity of printed works.

E-readership
There’s no denying the convenience of e-books. But what are they replacing, and why? A recent survey conducted in the US by Bowker’s PubTrack found that the core e-book buyer is a 44-year-old woman with a median household income of $77,000 who mostly buys romance novels. In addition, Bowker found that 18% of their survey respondents accounted for more than 60% of the e-book purchases reported.

And the notion that e-books will win over the younger generations is not necessarily true. Students still seem to prefer hardbacks in the classroom. A Bowker survey of 1,200 students found that e-books comprised only 4% of textbook purchases, and that printed editions were favoured by 75% of students. Even among those students who said they favoured e-books, electronic editions only accounted for 17% of their purchases – they were far more likely to acquire pirated editions from file-sharing sites.

So I don’t believe that e-books spell the end for printed editions. You could today easily do away with 15%-20% of printed books (those that are returned unsold) and still serve the existing market. Book printing will no doubt contract, as it must as publishers tighten their distribution processes, but I believe consumers will continue to embrace both forms of delivery. While an e-reader is a wonderful convenience, many will still value the ability to hold, display, peruse, reread and share physical books.

David Davis is director of Interquest