But beyond the Westminster bubble and far from Tory party in-fighting, the vote on 23 June could have a very real impact on the UK’s citizens and businesses.

The £13.9bn print sector is inextricably linked to the EU. We import presses and finishing kit, paper and other substrates, inks and printed goods and we export all of these too.

For businesses the immediate concern is what would happen to trading between us and other EU states, something the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign is keen to highlight. It quotes an HMRC statistic that says 61% of small business exports go to the EU, and a survey by the Financial Times/ICSA in December 2015 that 70% of major businesses expect to experience “some” or “significant” damage if we left Europe.

A Brexit could mean the return of the obstacles of tax, duty or complex customs clearance issues, all of which managing director of London printer Gavin Martin Colournet Gary Bird says would increase production costs.

“Since our printing industry is so reliant on Europe for everything from machinery through to paper, we would become less competitive on the global stage leading to a decline in trade with the US and the rest of the world,” he says.

Around 10% of Gavin Martin Colournet’s business comes from non-UK EU luxury brands, but Bird says it could potentially lose up to 25% of business as the company has several UK luxury retail clients and delivers print direct to their European stores.

Any export taxes or customs issues could encourage these British businesses to print in Europe, he says.

Antrim-based security printer DLRS (NI), part of the Tall Group, prints for a variety of clients in the UK and the Republic of Ireland (ROI), where managing director Peter Thomas also lives.

“I commute from Kildare every day. There’s no border, it’s a straight road down,” he says. “The EU referendum/Brexit is an added complexity where we don’t need to have one. 30% of our business is in the ROI.”

Of course a Brexit does not mean that the UK need put up trade barriers with EU countries. It could, say, follow the lead of Switzerland or Norway. Both can access the single market: Switzerland through a series of bilateral agreements and Norway as part of the European Economic Area. But access is in exchange to adopting some EU laws.

Norway’s population of 5 million said no to joining in referendums in 1972 and 1994 but no country has yet chosen to leave the EU, and nobody knows how painful a divorce it would be. A report by the Cabinet Office claimed it could take 10 years. 

“If you listen to the hype, a departure from the EU would be tantamount to a country committing suicide,” says Nigel Toplis managing director of Kall Kwik franchise owner The Bardon Group.

“Frankly, I just don’t buy it. Neither do I buy the counter argument that getting out of the EU will give us the keys to Eden. I suspect the people might just vote to leave.”

While Toplis is undecided on how he will vote, he thinks there will be some initial pain and the pound will lose value but not more than in the past. He also believes only a few major firms would leave the UK: “The continent will still be a major market for UK firms but an exit might give us the kick up the backside we need to be more proactive in doing more business with the Middle East, China, India, the US and so on.”

One of the issues with the referendum is access to information. Many businesses owners contacted by PrintWeek did not want to comment, saying they felt they did not know enough about the issue. So is there enough of the right information out there for UK business people?

The CBI is keen to help. It has written to trade bodies across the country offering support and produced a number of reports examining the issue, including one that examined five possible models for life after the EU – which concluded that the UK would survive, but would be worse off in each case. 

Speaking at the Lord Mayor’s industry dinner last week, CBI president Paul Drechsler argued that: “The majority of our members, though not all, have consistently told us that they want to be in a reformed EU.”

Like Toplis, Peter Melkowski, managing director of Peterborough print finishing company Print Solutions is undecided: “I feel we are not being given enough facts to go on, just political scaremongering, which really is not helping.”

He believes Brexit would not be the disaster some predict and that, with the UK struggling to pay for its health and social care, “something is wrong with the current system”.

At the moment the polls, much like the print industry, indicate that the referendum result is far from certain. So over the next three months the runners and riders in this two-horse race will do their level best to secure victory and and as the canter turns into a gallop come June, the best we can hope for a is a clear winner – because the only certainty is that the worst result would be a photo finish.

OPINION

Printers should talk to their customers to gauge impact

Charles Jarrold, chief executive officer, BPIF

In terms of our members’ views of the EU referendum it’s a very mixed picture, which reflects the diversity of companies in the sector. We have also had lengthy discussions with the CBI, along with most other trade associations, and they are reporting a mix of views and approaches too.

Our Government and Industry Committee discussed our approach, and have concluded that the BPIF should not take a campaigning position either for or against. We will, however, report members’ views into both the CBI and any wider discussions, and will help provide access to useful resources highlighting the issues through our website. 

To help this process we are planning a simple high-level poll of members, specifically asking them what they consider the impact a Brexit would have on their businesses. Obviously the impact of any decision is just one aspect that we will all consider, but as a trade association, it’s that particular business impact that is most relevant to us.

With such a diverse membership, we’re hearing a range of views, both for and against, and, sometimes the view that it will not have any major impact. Even for those companies that do not export, a decision to leave will most likely have some level of impact – both on the supply chain, with key inputs such as paper frequently being sourced from Europe, and in terms of the effect upon print’s customers. There’s also the issue of uncertainty – both in the lead up to the referendum, and subsequent to any decision for Brexit, should that be the outcome. 

Whether that impact is on balance positive or negative tends to depend on perspective. Whatever one’s individual views, we recommend that businesses take the time to talk to major customers and suppliers to understand potential implications on their businesses, and of course, we’re always interested to hear members’ views.

READER REACTION

What’s your view of a potential exit from the EU? 

Andy Blundell, chief executive, Communisis 

“We don’t have an official policy as a company. We’re of a view that says it’s an individual choice and a choice that needs to be informed by the debate. In the meantime we do not see, in the hypothetical event of a Brexit, that that would necessarily halt our expansion plans outside the UK. There are plusses and minuses to that argument but we’re quite confident that our growth strategy would withstand an in or an out vote and in the meantime we’re leaving it to the individual.”

Philip Foster, UK senior key account manager, Saxoprint

“I work for a German company so I’m leaning towards voting to stay. I feel if we back out the Germans will have to support the whole of the EU. We’ve got 580 members of staff in Dresden and we’ve got a team of 30 in the UK and I’m the only English person working here, because we run our call centres for these countries from here so it’s important we have mixed nationalities and language skills in the office. I don’t know what would happen if the UK was to leave.”

Martin Ruda, managing director, Tall Group 

“In a group context a relatively small proportion of output goes to the EU. Most international emerging markets are in Africa, so we don’t see that the decision would affect the business but DLRS (NI) trades regularly and significantly with the Republic of Ireland so the least disturbance to the status quo will suit us best. Personally I’ve lived in France and Spain and I think it would be a great shame if the country walked away from the EU. It’s a mess, but it’s a significant step forward from where we were 40 years ago.”