Pira report forecasts 11% growth for anti-fake technology

A report into the market for counterfeit goods found that wealthy individuals are most likely to knowingly buy fakes.

The study by the International Chamber of Commerce found that 50% of higher-income UK consumers reported buying counterfeit goods, whereas only 47% of medium-income shoppers said they had bought pirated goods and 41% of lower-income consumers. The report can be read by clicking here.

Meanwhile Pira's The Future of Anti-Counterfeiting, Brand Protection and Security Packaging V report said the global market for anti-counterfeiting technology was expected to reach $6.7bn (£4.03bn) in 2009 and $11.4bn (£6.86bn) by 2014.

Market growth, which Pira said would be led by RFID but which also includes technologies such as 2D barcodes and tamper-evident packaging and watermarks, is expected to have a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 11.1% over the five years between 2009 and 2014.

Industrial packaging growth
In terms of sector usage, industrial and bulk packaging is expected to grow 12.8% over the period, the biggest rate of all markets. Premium products such as cosmetics and healthcare are anticipated to grow 11.3% and 12.6% respectively; whereas the lower-margin sector of food and drink will grow just 9.6%.

In terms of anti-counterfeiting technologies, RFID's share of the market is miniscule – in 2009 Pira predicts that it will account for just 2%. However, it is expected to lead in terms of growth, with Pira predicting a 26.9% CAGR in the next five years.

Security printing – which in 2009, combined with substrates, inks and coatings accounts for 60% of the market – is expected to grow 14.6% between 2009 and 2014.

The use of holograms and DOVIDs (diffractive optical variable image devices), currently with a share of 22%, is predicted to grow by 9.3%.

'Other' technologies, a category that includes 2D barcodes such as Datamatrix and QR codes, is projected to grow 13.7% from a current base share of 6%.

The report said that Asia will have the largest share in 2009 (30.9%); while Europe and North America will have a share of 24.1% and 25.8% respectively.

In terms of growth over the next five years, the Middle East will grow fastest, with an anticipated CAGR of 16%, followed by Asia (15.1%) and Easter Europe (13%). North America's CAGR is forecast at 7.4%, while Western Europe and Australasia is predicted to grow 7.7%.

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